Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092026 260710 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    125.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  19.3  28.4  30.9  17.5  15.6  12.6  15.6  F  N  N  U  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  42.0  20.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  74.6  51.6  46.2  21.7   6.7  -4.2  -4.2  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  -7.0 -52.0 -48.0   6.0   7.0  12.0  22.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  69.0  66.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0 -17.0 -52.0 -70.0  14.0  12.0   0.0   2.0  U VF VF VF  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       42.0%       19.9%       30.9%
 25kt / 24h       17.5%       12.9%       15.2%
 30kt / 24h       17.5%        9.3%       13.4%
 35kt / 24h       17.5%        9.0%       13.2%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%        8.4%        5.7%
 45kt / 36h        6.9%        3.9%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 WP092026 260710 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    125.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  19.3  28.4  30.9  17.5  15.6  12.6  15.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  69.0  66.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0 -17.0 -52.0 -70.0  14.0  12.0   0.0   2.0  F VU VU VU  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%