Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260711 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.00 124.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 56.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 46.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.4 21.5 27.7 27.0 15.8 12.9 12.4 15.1 F N N N F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 49.0 21.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 79.6 62.4 53.0 38.0 22.9 7.8 1.6 1.6 N U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -4.0 -36.0 -15.0 -26.0 12.0 32.0 -35.0 28.0 U VU U VU U N VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 70.0 69.0 68.0 68.0 71.0 68.0 68.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -23.0 -45.0 -52.0 -21.0 -1.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 VF VF VF VF N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 12.7% 7.9% 10.3% 25kt / 24h 4.3% 6.2% 5.3% 30kt / 24h 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 35kt / 24h 4.3% 3.8% 4.1% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 3.1% 1.9% 45kt / 36h 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.44 WP092026 260711 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.00 124.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.