Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092026 260711 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    123.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  28.5  27.9  18.0  15.0  12.7  17.1  24.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         58.5  53.0  38.0  22.9   7.8   3.3  -0.8   1.6  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -36.0 -15.0 -27.0  -6.0  17.0  -4.0  30.0  11.0 VU  U VU  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  70.0  70.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -44.0 -45.0 -15.0  -1.0  10.0   0.0   0.0   5.0 VF VF VF  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        2.0%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        1.7%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        1.1%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.64

 WP092026 260711 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    123.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.