Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092026 260711 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60    121.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  24.4  18.3  12.4  11.6  15.0  22.0  28.8  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         53.0  38.0  22.9   9.7   3.3  -0.8   1.6  -1.6  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -26.0 -38.0 -22.0 -17.0  18.0 -47.0  40.0  16.0 VU VU VU  U  U VU  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  77.0  75.0  66.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -36.0 -17.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  22.0 VF VF  N  N  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        0.9%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.74

 WP092026 260711 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60    121.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.