Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092026 260711 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.70    120.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  16.0  13.5  15.6  12.0  22.8  28.9  30.8  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         58.0  42.9  37.0  27.8  23.3  19.2  27.8  13.4  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -38.0 -22.0 -16.0  33.0  -3.0   0.0  25.0  62.0 VU VU  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  72.0  75.0  74.0  71.0  64.0  58.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0   0.0  -1.0  11.0   1.0   0.0  12.0  29.0 VF  N  N  U  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.14

 WP092026 260711 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.70    120.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.