Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092026 260712 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.90    119.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  13.3  15.3  13.1  16.4  21.5  32.2  40.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.2  52.0  45.7  39.1  39.1  43.7  33.4  22.3  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -22.0 -17.0  33.0  18.0 -47.0  40.0  41.0  63.0 VU  U  N  U VU  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  66.0  58.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  12.0   8.0   2.0   0.0 -48.0  30.0  N  N  U  U  N  N VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.48

 WP092026 260712 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.90    119.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.