Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260712 06UTC Storm Located at : 31.00 118.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 9.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 150.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 9.7 13.5 17.9 16.3 23.7 29.9 37.8 53.1 F F F F N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 62.7 57.8 54.1 50.0 52.4 54.1 39.6 29.7 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -3.0 13.0 -8.0 -12.0 3.0 34.0 29.0 31.0 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 64.0 63.0 62.0 61.0 62.0 53.0 46.0 N N N N N N U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -4.0 -7.0 4.0 -5.0 0.0 8.0 -25.0 N F F N F N U VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.52 WP092026 260712 06UTC Storm Located at : 31.00 118.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.