Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260712 12UTC Storm Located at : 32.00 118.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.50 F TC SIZE [%] 142.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.2 13.0 13.4 18.3 21.4 31.9 45.9 64.3 F F F F N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 57.8 54.1 58.7 52.4 54.1 42.7 31.8 17.2 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 15.0 -13.0 -29.0 -28.0 5.0 42.0 35.0 15.0 U U VU VU U N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 62.0 61.0 58.0 63.0 56.0 54.0 59.0 N N N U N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -3.0 2.0 7.0 -1.0 21.0 18.0 -14.0 N N N N N VU VU VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.38 WP092026 260712 12UTC Storm Located at : 32.00 118.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.