Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092026 260713 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.30    117.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    147.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  21.5  22.0  40.6  43.4  48.4  51.6  45.1  F  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.3  64.1  60.8  53.4  45.7  27.5  28.2  23.8  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0   2.0 -24.0  44.0  46.0  70.0  82.0  81.0  U  U VU  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  59.0  57.0  55.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -2.0   3.0  16.0  41.0  -8.0  15.0   1.0  N  N  N  U VU  F  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.64

 WP092026 260713 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.30    117.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.