Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092026 260713 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.70    118.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  26.9  31.6  39.9  47.7  45.7  36.9  40.2  N  N  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.7  62.4  54.7  49.6  36.3  28.1  23.7  21.7  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -47.0   5.0  69.0  34.0  50.0  64.0  12.0  69.0 VU  U  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  56.0  53.0  58.0  65.0  64.0  70.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  12.0   7.0  40.0  17.0  28.0  11.0  -3.0  N  U  N VU  U VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.68

 WP092026 260713 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.70    118.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.