Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260713 18UTC Storm Located at : 35.70 119.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.40 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.9 31.6 34.8 36.1 49.6 45.6 47.6 55.0 N U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 57.4 49.7 45.8 38.7 22.7 23.2 18.7 16.4 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 6.0 69.0 34.0 31.0 57.0 58.0 83.0 55.0 U N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 55.0 51.0 59.0 62.0 66.0 62.0 61.0 N U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 9.0 45.0 41.0 40.0 37.0 6.0 1.0 U U VU VU VU VU N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.98 WP092026 260713 18UTC Storm Located at : 35.70 119.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.