Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260714 00UTC Storm Located at : 36.60 121.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 12.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.60 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.8 30.7 33.3 39.7 41.6 41.7 39.8 44.8 N U U U VU VU U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 46.2 42.1 38.4 30.9 22.3 14.8 11.6 11.8 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 41.0 50.0 31.0 61.0 99.0 45.0 71.0 58.0 N N N N F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 55.0 57.0 56.0 63.0 63.0 69.0 70.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 24.0 39.0 -7.0 35.0 2.0 8.0 2.0 N VU VU F VU N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.40 WP092026 260714 00UTC Storm Located at : 36.60 121.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.