Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260714 06UTC Storm Located at : 37.50 123.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.90 F TC SIZE [%] 141.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.0 33.3 47.1 47.8 45.0 44.6 46.0 48.3 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 41.4 38.4 31.8 23.2 18.4 13.5 12.3 13.3 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 48.0 31.0 60.0 87.0 48.0 74.0 63.0 71.0 N N N F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 57.0 55.0 55.0 64.0 65.0 68.0 72.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 22.0 39.0 -14.0 13.0 53.0 -17.0 6.0 16.0 VU VU VF U VU VF N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.24 WP092026 260714 06UTC Storm Located at : 37.50 123.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.