Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260714 18UTC Storm Located at : 39.70 128.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.30 F TC SIZE [%] 163.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 45.2 50.5 52.0 50.5 44.3 51.6 50.6 25.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 26.6 19.7 17.9 18.4 13.9 11.9 13.2 10.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 50.0 51.0 83.0 30.0 45.0 45.0 86.0 48.0 N N N N N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 59.0 64.0 65.0 60.0 68.0 73.0 72.0 U U N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 32.0 22.0 22.0 -3.0 8.0 22.0 23.0 N VU VU VU N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 17.02 WP092026 260714 18UTC Storm Located at : 39.70 128.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.