Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102026 260702 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    113.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  20.5  22.5  17.6  16.8  16.0  13.0  11.9  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  52.0  50.0  45.0  33.0  35.0  39.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 127.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  40.0  43.0  79.0  65.0  80.0  68.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  60.0  74.0  74.0  79.0  79.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -11.0 -12.0  -5.0   0.0   4.0   1.0   4.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        3.5%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h       12.5%       30.6%       21.6%
 30kt / 24h        7.1%       13.1%       10.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%       13.1%        7.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%       13.1%        7.7%
 45kt / 36h       13.8%       44.7%       29.3%
 55kt / 36h        8.3%       21.9%       15.1%
 55kt / 48h       28.1%       26.7%       27.4%
 70kt / 48h       13.2%       22.9%       18.1%
 65kt / 72h       27.4%       50.5%       39.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.46

 WP102026 260702 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    113.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  20.5  22.5  17.6  16.8  16.0  13.0  11.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  60.0  74.0  74.0  79.0  79.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -11.0 -12.0  -5.0   0.0   4.0   1.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%