Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102026 260702 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    111.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  23.3  22.1  38.4  20.3  13.2  16.2  23.2  N  N  N  U  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  45.0  45.0  39.0  35.0  37.0  25.0  25.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 114.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  59.0  45.0  25.0  72.0  75.0  51.0  54.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  77.0  81.0  81.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -10.0  -6.0  -2.0   4.0   1.0   6.0   5.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        2.2%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.1%       14.5%        9.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        4.8%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        4.4%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        4.4%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        5.5%       21.4%       13.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.7%        7.0%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h       14.6%       13.9%       14.2%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%        8.8%        7.0%
 65kt / 72h       14.9%       26.4%       20.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP102026 260702 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    111.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  23.3  22.1  38.4  20.3  13.2  16.2  23.2  N  N  N  F  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  77.0  81.0  81.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -10.0  -6.0  -2.0   4.0   1.0   6.0   5.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%