Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102026 260702 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    111.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.7  28.4  25.7  22.8  17.5  19.8  19.3  20.0  U  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  52.0  45.0  34.0  40.0  37.0  26.0  26.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 127.3 103.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  80.0 108.0  81.0  82.0  93.0  72.0  62.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  76.0  77.0  75.0  79.0  81.0  79.0  67.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0   0.0   5.0   1.0  11.0   5.0  20.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.1%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       14.5%        9.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        4.5%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        4.1%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.9%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        5.5%       21.3%       13.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        6.5%        4.3%
 55kt / 48h       13.3%       12.9%       13.1%
 70kt / 48h        4.4%        7.8%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h       15.1%       20.7%       17.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 WP102026 260702 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    111.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.7  28.4  25.7  22.8  17.5  19.8  19.3  20.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  76.0  77.0  75.0  79.0  81.0  79.0  67.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0   0.0   5.0   1.0  11.0   5.0  20.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%