Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102026 260702 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    110.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  25.0  24.3  21.2  18.4  21.8  15.0  22.4  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  45.0  31.0  29.0  41.0  34.0   0.9   0.7  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 127.3  92.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0 108.0  81.0  77.0  77.0  62.0  84.0  54.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  78.0  76.0  77.0  82.0  80.0  77.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -3.0   6.0   1.0   4.0   9.0  13.0  15.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%       14.8%        9.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        5.1%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        4.6%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        4.1%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        5.4%       21.6%       13.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.9%        6.8%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h       11.2%       13.8%       12.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        7.2%        5.3%
 65kt / 72h        9.1%       15.0%       12.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 WP102026 260702 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    110.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  25.0  24.3  21.2  18.4  21.8  15.0  22.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  78.0  76.0  77.0  82.0  80.0  77.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -3.0   6.0   1.0   4.0   9.0  13.0  15.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%