Rapid Intensification Guidance WP102026 260703 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 110.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 67.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 60.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.1 24.7 23.7 19.7 23.6 21.8 21.7 21.4 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 44.0 34.0 31.0 37.0 39.0 35.0 1.0 1.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 109.4 87.7 F F F F F F N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 79.0 71.0 65.0 62.0 54.0 75.0 59.0 21.0 N N N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 84.0 85.0 86.0 89.0 88.0 77.0 66.0 F F F F VF VF F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 6.0 5.0 2.0 7.0 11.0 21.0 26.0 N N N N N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.9% 3.1% 2.5% 25kt / 24h 11.9% 30.8% 21.4% 30kt / 24h 4.9% 15.9% 10.4% 35kt / 24h 2.9% 15.9% 9.4% 40kt / 24h 1.1% 13.7% 7.4% 45kt / 36h 9.5% 37.0% 23.3% 55kt / 36h 4.0% 17.0% 10.5% 55kt / 48h 6.5% 20.2% 13.3% 70kt / 48h 1.7% 11.6% 6.7% 65kt / 72h 2.0% 13.0% 7.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.42 WP102026 260703 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 110.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.1 24.7 23.7 19.7 23.6 21.8 21.7 21.4 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 84.0 85.0 86.0 89.0 88.0 77.0 66.0 U U U U VU VU U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 6.0 5.0 2.0 7.0 11.0 21.0 26.0 N N N N N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%