Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102026 260703 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    109.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  23.1  19.7  18.8  24.8  19.3  24.4  24.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  31.0  37.0  38.0  35.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 109.4  87.7  87.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  65.0  62.0  84.0  43.0  95.0  27.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  76.0  63.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   2.0   0.0  11.0  15.0  17.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        4.0%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h       16.0%       38.8%       27.4%
 30kt / 24h        6.7%       23.2%       14.9%
 35kt / 24h        5.0%       23.2%       14.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%       20.2%       10.6%
 45kt / 36h       10.8%       42.8%       26.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.7%       22.3%       13.5%
 55kt / 48h        8.8%       20.9%       14.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%       13.4%        8.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        9.9%        5.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 WP102026 260703 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    109.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  23.1  19.7  18.8  24.8  19.3  24.4  24.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  76.0  63.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   2.0   0.0  11.0  15.0  17.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%