Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102026 260703 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    109.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  24.6  24.1  26.8  24.7  28.7  18.9  29.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  32.0  35.0  36.0  36.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 119.6  93.0  65.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  58.0  61.0  65.0  81.0  31.0  36.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  82.0  82.0  81.0  81.0  70.0  62.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -3.0   0.0   4.0   8.0  13.0  14.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        3.6%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h       10.7%       26.7%       18.7%
 30kt / 24h        5.1%       13.5%        9.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%       13.5%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%       12.3%        6.7%
 45kt / 36h        7.4%       24.8%       16.1%
 55kt / 36h        2.8%        9.3%        6.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.5%       11.1%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        4.9%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        4.9%        2.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP102026 260703 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    109.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  24.6  24.1  26.8  24.7  28.7  18.9  29.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  82.0  82.0  81.0  81.0  70.0  62.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -3.0   0.0   4.0   8.0  13.0  14.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%