Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102026 260703 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  23.4  24.4  23.8  25.4  27.4  20.6  30.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  36.0  37.0  33.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 119.6  93.0  73.6  47.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  97.0  85.0  73.0  88.0  33.0  51.0  15.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  82.0  80.0  81.0  75.0  66.0  58.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   8.0  10.0   9.0  18.0  13.0  13.0  24.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        2.7%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        9.0%       24.1%       16.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%       11.2%        7.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%       11.0%        6.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%       10.4%        5.7%
 45kt / 36h        5.8%       18.0%       11.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%        5.6%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        5.5%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        2.3%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 WP102026 260703 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  23.4  24.4  23.8  25.4  27.4  20.6  30.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  82.0  80.0  81.0  75.0  66.0  58.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   8.0  10.0   9.0  18.0  13.0  13.0  24.0  N  F  F  F VF  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%