Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102026 260704 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    107.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  29.5  28.5  24.2  32.2  21.8  29.9  32.4  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  37.0  36.0  32.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 117.0  99.4  79.3  61.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  46.0  34.0  44.0  38.0  69.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  82.0  81.0  79.0  70.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  11.0   4.0   8.0   5.0  19.0  26.0  12.0  U  U  N  U  N VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        3.6%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h       10.4%       24.0%       17.2%
 30kt / 24h        5.3%       13.2%        9.2%
 35kt / 24h        4.8%       13.2%        9.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       11.7%        6.3%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%       14.4%        9.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        4.8%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        5.3%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.72

 WP102026 260704 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    107.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  29.5  28.5  24.2  32.2  21.8  29.9  32.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  82.0  81.0  79.0  70.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  11.0   4.0   8.0   5.0  19.0  26.0  12.0  F  F  N  F  N VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%