Rapid Intensification Guidance WP102026 260704 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.30 107.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 60.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 44.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.7 24.9 24.5 28.1 27.6 32.9 40.5 46.1 N N N N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 34.0 26.0 22.8 16.2 9.8 3.2 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 109.6 109.6 74.3 49.3 28.4 22.7 N N N N U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 56.0 43.0 54.0 49.0 41.0 32.0 11.0 44.0 N N N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 82.0 74.0 70.0 63.0 55.0 54.0 55.0 F F N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 20.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 27.0 19.0 20.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.2% 5.0% 5.1% 25kt / 24h 11.7% 24.2% 18.0% 30kt / 24h 6.7% 14.1% 10.4% 35kt / 24h 5.6% 14.1% 9.8% 40kt / 24h 1.4% 13.2% 7.3% 45kt / 36h 3.1% 10.2% 6.7% 55kt / 36h 1.2% 3.3% 2.2% 55kt / 48h 1.6% 1.3% 1.5% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.02 WP102026 260704 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.30 107.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.7 24.9 24.5 28.1 27.6 32.9 40.5 46.1 N N N N N F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 82.0 74.0 70.0 63.0 55.0 54.0 55.0 U U N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 20.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 27.0 19.0 20.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%