Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102026 260704 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60    107.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     90.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  28.8  30.8  29.4  24.2  24.2  24.2  24.2  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 109.6  94.4  74.3  74.3  74.3  74.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  38.0  38.0  33.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  75.0  70.0  67.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   7.0  13.0   5.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.0%        6.8%        6.4%
 25kt / 24h       12.2%       26.1%       19.1%
 30kt / 24h        7.1%       17.6%       12.3%
 35kt / 24h        7.1%       17.6%       12.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       12.8%        6.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.6%       17.3%       10.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        6.7%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        3.2%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        2.2%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 WP102026 260704 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60    107.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  28.8  30.8  29.4  24.2  24.2  24.2  24.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  75.0  70.0  67.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   7.0  13.0   5.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%