Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102026 260705 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    107.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  31.9  29.6  23.2  38.1  32.9  32.9  32.9  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 114.6 101.5  88.0  63.0  43.7  43.7  43.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  31.0  82.0  61.0   2.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  70.0  70.0  67.0  60.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  29.0  15.0  16.0  39.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  U VU  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.6%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h       -0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.26

 WP102026 260705 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    107.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  31.9  29.6  23.2  38.1  32.9  32.9  32.9  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  70.0  70.0  67.0  60.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  29.0  15.0  16.0  39.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  F VF  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%