Rapid Intensification Guidance WP102026 260705 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.00 108.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 46.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 9.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 139.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.7 30.3 23.2 24.2 26.3 46.0 46.0 46.0 U N N N N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 124.6 111.5 99.8 89.3 59.8 44.2 44.2 44.2 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 31.0 80.0 62.0 44.0 0.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 N N N N U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 69.0 66.0 64.0 63.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 29.0 19.0 16.0 28.0 46.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 VU VU U VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.48 WP102026 260705 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.00 108.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.