Rapid Intensification Guidance WP102026 260705 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.80 108.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 23.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.50 F TC SIZE [%] 139.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.0 24.9 27.5 44.6 42.7 54.8 44.2 31.7 U N N VU VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 116.5 94.3 85.0 70.5 49.2 43.4 30.9 21.5 N N N U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 68.0 54.0 58.0 44.0 14.0 100.0 7.0 6.0 N N N N U F U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 64.0 59.0 55.0 55.0 58.0 71.0 78.0 N N U U U U N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 9.0 27.0 47.0 22.0 48.0 38.0 36.0 VU U VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.54 WP102026 260705 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.80 108.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.