Rapid Intensification Guidance WP102026 260705 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.10 109.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 44.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 28.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.70 F TC SIZE [%] 140.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.0 28.7 44.8 34.8 53.7 41.0 34.1 13.7 N N VU U VU VU U F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 99.3 81.7 69.8 63.7 47.7 43.4 29.0 23.4 N N U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 53.0 59.0 44.0 22.0 74.0 49.0 34.0 -15.0 N N N U N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 58.0 54.0 54.0 50.0 62.0 70.0 75.0 N U U U U N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 26.0 41.0 36.0 43.0 32.0 36.0 5.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.28 WP102026 260705 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.10 109.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.