Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102026 260706 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90    109.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  24.4  25.7  20.3  33.4  29.3  40.6  40.6  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.5  88.0  88.0  80.5  74.8  68.7  59.2  57.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  23.0   6.0  12.0  39.0  12.0   1.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  53.0  49.0  46.0  48.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  31.0  24.0  20.0  28.0  10.0  12.0  15.0  11.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.1%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.64

 WP102026 260706 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90    109.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.