Rapid Intensification Guidance WP102026 260706 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.10 110.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 142.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.5 26.0 20.5 27.7 23.2 29.9 52.9 59.4 N N N N N N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 96.5 88.0 80.5 80.5 80.5 74.8 64.1 55.4 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 45.0 19.0 18.0 14.0 -23.0 -19.0 -25.0 0.0 N U U U VU U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 61.0 57.0 54.0 52.0 51.0 48.0 47.0 U N U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 14.0 21.0 9.0 7.0 4.0 13.0 7.0 U U VU U N N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 19.6% 9.2% 14.4% 70kt / 48h 9.2% 0.1% 4.7% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.30 WP102026 260706 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.10 110.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.