Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112026 260723 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    125.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  20.2  22.3  17.4  20.4  18.2  15.2  19.9  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   98.0  78.0  50.0  49.0  30.0  13.0  25.0  11.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.8  73.0  69.2  66.7  66.7  63.2  57.7  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  66.0  52.0   0.0  36.0  33.0  64.0  10.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  60.0  56.0  59.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -11.0  -3.0  -2.0  -7.0  -2.0  -6.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.9%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.6%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        8.2%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        3.2%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h       42.4%        0.3%       21.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.24

 WP112026 260723 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    125.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.