Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112026 260724 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  14.3  10.9  14.7  11.6  13.0  15.1  17.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   76.0  58.0  59.0  46.0  27.0   7.0  12.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         69.4  66.7  66.7  65.4  60.5  54.8  48.7  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  46.0  18.0   6.0  51.0  58.0  -6.0  61.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  56.0  58.0  61.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -4.0   2.0   7.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        2.5%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%        7.4%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        4.0%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        2.8%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        5.3%       24.4%       14.9%
 55kt / 36h        5.3%       14.0%        9.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.28

 WP112026 260724 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.