Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112026 260724 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    120.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.1  14.4  14.6  10.2  14.3  17.4  17.7  21.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  41.0  30.0  21.0  26.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.4  44.2  41.7  38.2  32.7  25.9  16.2   7.3  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  40.0  29.0  27.0  29.0   2.0  63.0  28.0  U  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  60.0  59.0  56.0  62.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -9.0 -11.0  -3.0  -4.0   5.0   8.0   5.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.3%       10.0%       15.1%
 25kt / 24h       11.6%       12.4%       12.0%
 30kt / 24h       11.2%        9.2%       10.2%
 35kt / 24h       11.2%        7.8%        9.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.92

 WP112026 260724 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    120.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.