Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112026 260725 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    118.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  11.4  15.6  17.9  20.2  16.0  24.4  17.6  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  20.0   8.0  28.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.5  28.2  25.9  22.7  16.8   4.1  -2.2  -4.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  41.0   8.0   9.0   8.0  39.0  42.0  22.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  57.0  67.0  71.0  74.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0   7.0  10.0   1.0  -2.0  F  N  F  F  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.6%        4.9%        8.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.48

 WP112026 260725 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    118.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.