Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112026 260725 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.7  16.5  17.8  13.1  22.4  17.0  25.1  19.5  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0   9.0  18.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         23.2  20.9  17.7  14.7   5.0  -5.4  -9.3 -16.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0   8.0   9.0  -1.0  41.0  66.0   9.0  36.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  64.0  69.0  74.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -4.0   1.0  10.0   6.0   2.0  -1.0  F  N  F  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.7%        0.0%       11.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.26

 WP112026 260725 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.