Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112026 260726 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.10 114.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -40.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.90 F TC SIZE [%] 141.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.5 18.1 26.5 23.3 14.9 24.5 18.3 24.1 N F N N F N F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 55.4 50.8 47.8 45.7 40.9 35.9 32.9 30.3 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 60.0 77.0 44.0 2.0 23.0 6.0 -37.0 -45.0 N N N U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 74.0 78.0 81.0 82.0 78.0 74.0 71.0 N N F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 10.0 5.0 6.0 -1.0 10.0 7.0 5.0 U U N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.44 WP112026 260726 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.10 114.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.