Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122026 260729 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.10 169.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 120. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 120.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 78.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 49.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.5 13.0 13.0 10.7 10.2 10.4 14.4 12.6 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 51.0 65.0 78.0 86.0 81.0 71.0 81.0 59.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] -49.8 -51.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -50.4 -51.0 -51.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 47.0 39.0 31.0 49.0 51.0 19.0 35.0 33.0 N N N N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 70.0 68.0 70.0 69.0 69.0 72.0 72.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.10 WP122026 260729 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.10 169.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 120.