Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122026 260729 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.80 166.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 145. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 145.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 100.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.7 13.7 18.2 13.9 15.5 17.0 19.9 14.8 F F F F F F N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 87.0 85.0 76.0 68.0 73.0 68.0 52.0 48.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] -76.6 -77.2 -77.2 -77.2 -77.2 -76.0 -77.2 -77.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 23.0 38.0 38.0 44.0 34.0 14.0 -2.0 U U N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 67.0 69.0 70.0 71.0 71.0 68.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 3.0 2.0 7.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.84 WP122026 260729 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.80 166.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 145.