Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260730 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    162.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     86.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  13.2  13.1  10.9  23.1  16.9  24.8  21.5  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  107.0 109.0 107.0 102.0  86.0  54.0  61.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  30.0  10.0   8.0  -9.0  -2.0  -8.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  60.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.2%        4.2%        6.2%
 25kt / 24h        8.7%        7.7%        8.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 WP122026 260730 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    162.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  13.2  13.1  10.9  23.1  16.9  24.8  21.5  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  60.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.1%        1.5%