Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260731 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    161.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     95.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.5  11.0   9.9  13.3  15.6  17.7  18.2  23.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  104.0 104.0 100.0  96.0  69.0  51.0  13.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  16.0  31.0  33.0  -3.0  34.0  -4.0   3.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  59.0  53.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   6.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.0%        7.8%       10.9%
 25kt / 24h       15.2%       12.6%       13.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.02

 WP122026 260731 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    161.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.5  11.0   9.9  13.3  15.6  17.7  18.2  23.9  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  59.0  53.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   6.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%