Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122026 260731 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.60 161.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 140. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 140.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 91.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.1 13.2 16.4 16.2 22.6 24.4 23.3 26.6 F F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 104.0 101.0 97.0 91.0 55.0 54.0 71.0 78.0 F F F F N N N N Potential [kt] 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 15.0 31.0 28.0 14.0 0.0 11.0 -1.0 -19.0 U N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 63.0 64.0 62.0 60.0 55.0 52.0 53.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 10.0 1.0 3.0 -15.0 N N N N U N N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.6% 0.0% 5.8% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.94 WP122026 260731 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.60 161.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 140. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 140.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.1 13.2 16.4 16.2 22.6 24.4 23.3 26.6 U U U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 63.0 64.0 62.0 60.0 55.0 52.0 53.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 10.0 1.0 3.0 -15.0 N N N N F N N VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 3.2% 1.6%