Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260731 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    160.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.9  18.5  18.6  19.1  21.2  20.8  25.5  21.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  101.0  97.0  89.0  71.0  51.0  13.0  78.0  76.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  17.0   6.0   0.0  27.0  -7.0   1.0 -35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  59.0  60.0  55.0  52.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   3.0  -5.0  -2.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        3.1%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%        4.5%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.84

 WP122026 260731 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    160.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.9  18.5  18.6  19.1  21.2  20.8  25.5  21.8  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  59.0  60.0  55.0  52.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   3.0  -5.0  -2.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.3%        2.7%