Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260731 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    159.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     91.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  18.5  21.2  18.2  22.2  19.8  26.5  30.2  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0  83.0  60.0  51.0  62.0  78.0  76.0  67.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0   6.0 -15.0  -6.0   8.0 -12.0 -19.0 -13.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.8%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        2.8%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.3%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.74

 WP122026 260731 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    159.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  18.5  21.2  18.2  22.2  19.8  26.5  30.2  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.9%        3.9%