Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260801 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    158.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     84.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  19.6  19.5  20.6  18.0  30.3  28.9  30.7  F  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   84.0  62.0  50.0  51.0  47.0  80.0  82.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  -9.0  -8.0   6.0  -8.0   2.0 -30.0   5.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  60.0  56.0  51.0  51.0  49.0  52.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   1.0   2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        2.2%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        3.4%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        2.8%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 WP122026 260801 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    158.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  19.6  19.5  20.6  18.0  30.3  28.9  30.7  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  60.0  56.0  51.0  51.0  49.0  52.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   1.0   2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.6%        3.8%