Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    157.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     90.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  21.8  20.6  24.1  26.8  29.0  33.5  25.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  51.0  51.0  57.0  74.0  78.0  81.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0 -14.0   3.0 -10.0 -13.0 -13.0  -3.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  58.0  58.0  59.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.5%        3.3%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        4.9%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        4.0%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%        3.2%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 WP122026 260801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    157.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  21.8  20.6  24.1  26.8  29.0  33.5  25.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  58.0  58.0  59.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.3%        3.6%