Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260801 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    154.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     85.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  26.1  25.0  21.5  26.3  33.7  22.7  25.2  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  57.0  58.0  74.0  78.0  87.0   6.0  88.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  F
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0  -7.0  -4.0  -4.0 -20.0 -37.0 -19.0   9.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  53.0  55.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -2.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.1%        4.7%        8.4%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%        5.8%        5.5%
 30kt / 24h        4.3%        4.6%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 WP122026 260801 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    154.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  26.1  25.0  21.5  26.3  33.7  22.7  25.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  53.0  55.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -2.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.0%        3.5%