Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260802 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70    153.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  24.0  21.9  25.0  25.8  26.4  25.4  22.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  14.0  72.0  80.0  80.0  92.0   7.0  92.0  N  U  N  N  N  F  U  F
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0 -29.0 -13.0  -2.0 -31.0 -10.0 -13.0  30.0  U VU  U  U VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  52.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0  -6.0   0.0  -5.0  -1.0  -6.0  -2.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.9%        4.3%        7.6%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%        5.6%        5.3%
 30kt / 24h        4.1%        4.5%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 WP122026 260802 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70    153.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  24.0  21.9  25.0  25.8  26.4  25.4  22.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  52.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0  -6.0   0.0  -5.0  -1.0  -6.0  -2.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.3%        3.6%