Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260802 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    150.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  21.6  24.3  20.5  23.9  20.0  22.2  15.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  83.0  82.0  79.0  91.0   7.0  91.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  F  U  F  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -32.0 -18.0 -21.0 -26.0 -17.0  -3.0  35.0  12.0 VU  U VU VU  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -1.0  -5.0  -1.0  -5.0   0.0  -2.0  N  F  N  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.6%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        3.0%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.3%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        1.6%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h       16.6%        1.1%        8.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP122026 260802 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    150.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  21.6  24.3  20.5  23.9  20.0  22.2  15.9  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -1.0  -5.0  -1.0  -5.0   0.0  -2.0  N  U  N  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.8%        3.9%