Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122026 260802 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00    149.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  19.1  16.9  25.3  15.9  16.1  13.5  11.9  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   83.0  79.0  86.0  81.0   1.0  91.0  18.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  U  F  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -23.0 -28.0 -25.0 -24.0 -34.0  11.0  11.0   1.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  50.0  52.0  50.0  49.0  51.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -8.0  -5.0  -1.0  -2.0   5.0   3.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.7%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        3.7%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        2.9%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        2.1%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h       12.8%        1.1%        7.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 WP122026 260802 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00    149.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  19.1  16.9  25.3  15.9  16.1  13.5  11.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  50.0  52.0  50.0  49.0  51.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -8.0  -5.0  -1.0  -2.0   5.0   3.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.8%        2.9%